Abstract:
Soil is a vital resource for life. Soil erosion is one of the most serious natural problem caused by degrading land, agricultural and other human induced activities. The aim of this study is to predict the soil loss in the Marmara Region as a result of climate change. To achieve this, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) is used and soil loss maps of the region are produced by the the help of remote sensing and geographic information systems techniques. While soil loss maps are produced between the years 1989 and 2017, future projections of soil erosion are also investigated for the period between years 2020 and 2049. For climate projections two scenarios of the Regional Climate Model are used: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results showed that, when compared to the historical data, soil erosion risk in the future will increase in the Marmara Region. The soil loss results for the time interval 2020-2049 of the scenario RCP 8.5 is 61% higher than the results of the scenario RCP 4.5. Also, the results based on the historical data of the Regional Climate Model showed that the soil loss ranged from 0 to 24.298 Mg. ha-1. year-1 during the time interval 1989 -2017 in the Marmara Region, and the average soil loss is estimated as 12.2 Mg. ha-1. year-1.
