Abstract:
This research aims to understand the impactof Syrian migration influx on the capital flowinTurkey through theTurkish banking indicators.Specifically,wetryto estimate thechangeinmonetarystocksinsavingdepositaccountsandtheusageof variousloansandcreditsbetween2013and2018.Forthatreason,weuseacanonical difference-in-differenceestimationstrategywiththeinstrumentalvariableapproach, relaxing commontrendassumptionofthissetting.ThisstudysuggeststhatSyrian refugees affectcapitalflowpositivelyintermsofaccumulationandcreditusage.Our findings proposethatSyrianrefugeeshaveapositiveimpactontheusageofaggregate personal loansthrough,mostly,consumercredits,andonthecommercialcreditsin the textileandtheconstructionsectorsinnon-cashandcashcredits,respectively.This findings mayimplyunconventionalfinancingcurrentinvestments,mostly,inthe informal sector,sectoralshiftsintheconstructionsector,andincreaseinexportlevel of thetextilesector.Additionally,wecanobservepositiveeffectsontheforeign currencies inthesavingdepositaccountswhileestimatingadecreaseinnative currencysavings.Ourresultsareconsistentwiththecurrentmigrationliteratureand showlocalvarietiesofconsumerreactionsincreditmarketandcapitalflowinthe host country.
