Abstract:
In this thesis, the semi-empirical cloudiness parameterization adapted to the regional climate model of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), RegCM to improve the model's ability to simulate the temperature climatology of Central Asia region. The new semi-empirical cloudiness parameterization was tested by using ERA-interim and ERA40 reanalysis data and the global climate model ECHAM5 as the boundary condition for di erent periods of time. The performance of the regional climate model RegCM in simulating the climate of the region were improved. Investigation of the future temperature and precipitation climatology of Central Asia was done for periods of 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100 with respect to the period of 1970-2000 by using RegCM4.3.5 which was driven by two global climate models. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenario (IPCC) output of HadGEM2 and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for the domain. Results showed that strong warming in the winter and a decrease in precipitation in almost all parts of the domain will be seen for the future periods. The future mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and variability were also projected over the Mediterranean region by using A2, A1B and B1 scenario outputs of 16 global climate models. Results showed that strong warming up to 6.5 C in the summer and lowest warming in the winter season will be observed. Decrease in precipitation will be seen in all seasons excluding the Switzerland and Caucasian region during the winter season for future period of 2070-2100 with respect to reference period of 1970-2000.
