Climate change induced water scarcity risk mapping : coupling of multi criteria decision analysis with analytic hierarchy process methods

Abstract

Water resources have a vital importance for all living beings, ecosystems and ecological cycles. However, only less than 1% of water on Earth is available for human consumption. The impacts of human activities on water resources, both in quantitative and qualitative aspects, have been widely discussed and studied by many researchers for years. Meantime, global climate crise emerged by the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic activities. Impacts of climate change have been widely observed either as extreme precipitation events causing floods, or heatwaves causing droughts and wildfires. Research also demonstrates high confidence about the future climate change impacts on water resources. Especially, Mediterranean region has been pointed out as one of the regions that will be facing severe drought risk. This study aims to perform climate change induced water scarcity risk mapping by including climatic, geographical, socio-economic and infrastructural parameters. Büyük Menderes Basin was selected as the case study area due to its location and the intensity of agricultural activities involved in the basin. MCDA-AHP method was utilized with the coupling of QGIS and Fuzzy membership methods. Publicly available data were used to identify spatial water scarcity risks in the Basin. SSP1-1.9, SSP3-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were used to identify subbasins with the highest water scarcity risk for 2050. Comparison of parameters causing water scarcity risk is seen as the main output of the study. It should be noted that this study suggests a tool, rather than a full risk assessment to be used as a guidance for policy makers.