Pipeline damage assessment through Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Earthquakes are one of the most catastrophic events among all the disasters. They affect societies in many aspects including life losses and economic losses. Besides the life losses, a lot of people get injured and become disabled due to earthquakes. As being parts of the lifeline systems in a city, potable water systems, wastewater systems, electricity systems, etc. are vital for human life. The impediments in the serviceability of these lifeline systems, put people’s lives in danger even after an earthquake. Studies to reduce the negative effects of earthquakes and guess the serviceability of a lifeline system after an earthquake has gained major importance. In this study, algorithms to predict the number of damages on the water pipeline system due to an earthquake suggested by both HAZUS-FEMA (2003) and the Ameri can Lifeline Alliance (ALA-2001) are compared. Moreover, the Monte Carlo simulation technique is introduced to these two methods and the results of these methods through Monte Carlo simulation are also compared. To perform the analyses, a generic study of the Zeytinburnu potable water system in Istanbul is examined with four different pipe material types, namely, concrete, bellmouth concrete, steel, and polyethylene under a scenario earthquake generated by ELER software. Concrete and steel pipes have large diameters, whereas bellmouth concrete and polyethylene pipes have small diameters in this study. With these different pipe material types, the effects of being brittle and being ductile materials on pipe failures are also evaluated and compared.