Endogeneity of economic perceptions in Turkish electorate's voting behaviour

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the impacts of economic conditions and perceptions on Turkish electorate’s voting behaviour based on four identical surveys conducted at different times. The first part of the analysis follows the existing literature on Turkey that treats voters’ subjective economic perceptions as exogenous determinants of vote choice. The second part investigates the premise underlying the literature that voters’ economic perceptions are exogenous by employing structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. The empirical evidence suggests that the voters’ perceptions are partially or completely endogenous and highlights the need to reevaluate the findings of the existing literature.