A stochastic evaluation on the prospects for the diffusion of wind power technologies at alternative sites in Turkey

Abstract

The objective of this thesis is to explore wind energy projects under competitiveelectricity market conditions by performing financial and economic analyses for alternative sites and projects in Turkey. The competitive electricity market model is determinedaccording to the EPSIM model (Kleindorfer et al.[12]) with some modifications to reflectTurkish conditions. A Wind Energy Project Evaluation tool (WEPE) has been developed toprovide a comprehensive evaluation integrating wind speed data analysis, wind power engineering analysis, financial and economic analyses of wind energy projects, productioncost calculation of alternative power generation technologies and simulation of the Turkishcompetitive electricity market model.First, wind speed data analysis is performed based on the Weibull distribution by analyzing wind speed data of potentially suitable sixteen sites obtained from the StateMeteorological Service. Seven sites with high wind energy potential have been identifiedthrough this analysis. Then, the corresponding regional load distribution centers aredetermined and the load data has been obtained from the National Load Distribution Center. Stochastic time-series techniques based upon ARIMA are used for forecasting thefive different regions̕ loads over a twenty-five year period from 2005 to 2030. Loadscheduling and dispatching in the power pool is captured by EPSIM. The model includesgeneration companies, load management entities and a system operator as involved actors. By making assumptions regarding functioning of the model for the Turkish case, resultsare obtained through WEPE for a base case reference scenario and eight additionalscenarios based on the draft renewable energy law. Economically viable sites aredetermined, and impacts of a competitive market and of various purchase price guarantees on wind power sale revenues are explored.