Modeling the dynamics of global sustainability based on developped-developing nations distinction

Abstract

Most models about global sustainability treat the world as if it were a homogeneous, single-nation system. However, the clustering observed among nations with respect to their economic development levels results in two distinct blocks with significantly different internal economic and demographic dynamics; developed (North) and developing (South) blocks. Interaction of these blocks and their local actions affect the global sustainability, as they are two interrelated actors in a closed system, namely the world. In this study, population, economic growth, welfare gap, energy supply and related pollution are identified as the key issues related to both global sustainability and the development discrepancy between North and South blocks. These issues are analyzed in a 'systems' perspective, focusing on their systemic, inseparable nature. A dynamic feedback model is constructed in order to simulate the long-term dynamics for key variables related to the above issues. The model is tested through well-defined validation procedures. First, its structure is tested, and then the model behavior is calibrated and tested with respect to the available data. Through these tests, the model is shown to be a useful platform to study alternative scenarios and policies through simulation experiments. Results from the simulation experiments reveal that stabilizing the population growth in South is vital for closing the welfare gap between blocks. Although South can reach North in terms of gross output, the gap between the output per capita levels prevails. A non-renewable-resource-dependent economic growth -currently prevailing system- does not seem viable globally, as cumulative energy load of South and North seems to overshoot global capacity. Hence, transition to alternative energy resources is vital for attaining global sustainability. Future energy crisis will have more serious and irreversible effects on South, as compared to North. Recovery of South from a non-renewable energy crisis can take place in a reasonable time period only with the investment support of North needed for building alternative renewable energy capacity.