Simulation of disease spread models with metapopulation approach

Abstract

In this thesis, a metapopulation simulation model, which is not only useful for Turkey but for any country, is built. For this purpose, a general simulation code is implemented including both infection and travel processes. Required parameters and inputs are defined and analyzed. In case travelling between cities, it will be possible to observe disease spreading behaviour and whether an outbreak will occur or not in cities. Moreover, it will be possible to predict a possible disease outbreak, the number of infected people and to take precautions such as vaccination. The model is implemented in R and so it is flexible and can be modified for different cities. In the first step, the simulation code is run for two cities with various expected number of people who travel to observe the behaviour of the disease spread and check the performance of the code. In the second step, simulation experiments are carried out with main cities in Turkey to see that how fast the epidemy will spread between cities. Before doing experiments, data is gathered for Turkey parameters in the internet. The effect of the vaccination on the disease spread behaviour in the largest three cities in Turkey is also observed.