A regional demand forecasting study for transportation fuels in Turkey

Abstract

Fuel demand in transportation sector has received considerable attention for the last decades. Population growth and economic development in the past few decades have caused a growing demand for fuel in transportation sector in Turkey. The objective of this study is to project the fuel consumption of each region in Turkey for transportation sector by applying different forecasting methods for the year 2013. In the literature covered for this thesis study, different types of modeling methods were used to estimate fuel demand, each of them have their own strengths and weaknesses. This study is based on Multiple Linear Regression, Moving Average, Double Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt–Winters’ model using the as independent variables such as: gross value added, population, the numbers of registered vehicles, and fuel prices. The models are based on 11-year historical data between the years 2001 and 2012 which have been provided by various governmental institutions, and are used to project the trends in future transport fuel consumption for year the 2013. At the end of the study, the results of the all methods are compared to determine the best forecasting method for Turkey’s fuel demand for the year 2013 is presented. Examining the results of the all regions, fuel consumptions are presented by tables and figures with respect to fuel types. In conclusion, all scenarios are compared with each other and the results are presented.