Evaluation of energy supply-demand balance and CO2 emissions from the transport sector in Turkey based on technologically detailed MARKAL based energy modeling

Abstract

Global warming has been one of the main concerns all over the world in the last decades and this phenomenon gave rise to the increase in the studies and research on GHG (Greenhouse Gases) emissions, CO2 in particular. This study examines CO2 emissions from the transport sector in Turkey based on a MARKAL-Turkey Energy Model where CO2 emissions, investment costs, and energy demands are estimated for each 5-year time period between 2006 and 2051. The transport sector is analyzed in four main modes, namely road, rail, maritime, and air transport. The main modes are further detailed into 23 sub-modes (vehicle types) and the data regarding these sub-modes have been collected from various governmental institutions and non-governmental organizations. For the analysis of CO2 emissions, three groups of scenarios are defined in the study; the emission reduction scenarios, modal shift scenarios, and auto efficiency with fuel price scenarios. Each scenario group consists of a base and two alternative cases. By the combination of these cases, a total of 27 scenarios are created. Examining the results of the scenarios, the total CO2 emissions and energy consumptions are presented by tables and figures with respect to fuel types. In addition, fuel consumptions and investments are also assessed with respect to sub-modes and time periods. In conclusion, all scenarios are compared with each other and the results are presented.